Regresso ao Futuro: os mares da China meridional e oriental como prenúncio de uma nova ordem (a Pax Sinica) | Back to the Future: South and East China's seas as heralding a new order (the Pax Sinica)



Paulo Duarte
Investigador-convidado na National Chengchi University, Taiwan e investigador no Instituto do Oriente, Rua Almerindo Lessa, 1300-663 Lisboa, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .


This study is not intended to describe the interests of the various stakeholders who claim their part of southern and eastern China’s waters. Other have already done this. Instead, through a hermeneutic analysis, we start from a literature review, to contribute to what seems to be the added value of this study: prospection. Based on the assumption that revisionism will be China’s ‘new normal’, we argue that the litigation in southern and eastern China’s seas may, after all, be mere fait divers or forebodings of what is to come: a sino-centric order, in which the United States (in relative decline) will eventually, as predicted by Kennedy, decline at an uncertain moment yet. Everything indicates that the
new hegemon is China. That said, we open the following rhetorical question: Would it not be time for the international community to start considering how will China fit (or how the international community fits to China) within a planet of scarce resources?

Keywords: China, Sea of southern and eastern China, U.S;,Revisionism vs Status Quo.



Este artigo não visa descrever os interesses dos vários atores que reivindicam a sua parte das águas da China meridional e oriental. Outros já o fizeram. Ao contrário, munidos de uma análise hermenêutica, partimos de uma revisão de literatura para contribuirmos para aquilo que nos parece ser a mais-valia deste artigo: a prospeção. Tendo por base o postulado de que o revisionismo será o ‘novo normal’ da China, defendemos que as disputas nos mares da China meridional e oriental poderão, afinal, ser meros fait divers ou prenúncios do que se seguirá: uma ordem sinocêntrica, em que os Estados Unidos (em declínio relativo) acabarão, como previa Kennedy por declinar um dia em termos absolutos. Tudo indica que o novo hégemon seja a China. Dito isto, deixamos a seguinte pergunta retórica: Não será tempo de a Comunidade Internacional pensar como vai acomodar a China (ou se acomodar a ela) num planeta cujos recursos escasseiam?

Palavras-chave: China, Mar da China meridional e oriental, Estados Unidos, Revisionismo vs Status quo.




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Daxiyangguo – Portuguese Journal of Asian Studies

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